Not only people but also websites need to take a break so we will take leave
for the month of August. Only partly because we will continue to bring you the
news of the current happenings in the real estate sector. This summer will
certainly not be uninteresting, although it is – like the previous summers
– time to relax. But perhaps less than usual. The global economy seems to be
at the crossroads of where it is heading at the moment: whether to a recurrence
of a recession or – despite all sceptical voices – to a gradual recovery
that would slowly begin to balance losses from previous years. Let us all
believe that option B will be true.
The result of the parliamentary elections and subsequent creation of a
coalition government of three centre-right parties have brought considerable
hope to business and certainly to property developers circles. Now, after the
approval of the coalition agreement, these slightly optimistic expectations can
have more specific contours. The agreement, however, has nearly seventy standard
text pages, we have therefore prepared a summary of what concerns in some way or
another property development.
There are signs of better times ahead at the industrial and logistics
property market, according to the research group of consulting companies CBRE,
King Sturge and DTZ. While in the first quarter of this year, lease contracts
for approximately 158 000 square metres were signed, it was already 221 500
square metres in the second quarter. Overall, this year the demand for logistics
areas (380 000 square metres) nearly equaled the volume of demand for the
year 2009.
What are the parameters of success for any development project at the time of
a long-term crisis? This question has been heard countless times in a number of
various permutations during past discussions at Stavebné fórum. Despite the
insightful and spirited answers and definitions, not every speaker from the
above-mentioned field was able to praise themselves that they had estimated the
future demand exactly during the projection of their investment plans and did
not step off the trail. During the last, June, discussion meeting, Slavomíra
Tóthová from the company Mlyny, a.s. presented exactly such a project.
Not so long ago the market situation with real estate agencies has
culminated. The excess pressure of supply, as far as the brokering service in
the execution of a trade transaction is concerned, was truly enormous and
surpassed even the number of real estate properties which were in circulation
during the boom. It did not concern exclusively the subject of business
– real estate agencies were promising dizzying careers to prospective brokers
who were supposed to turn professional after telegraphic training and in time
become rich – guaranteed. Freely available real estate magazines were filled
with photographs of successful “terminators“, reminiscent of the youthful
faces of today‘s teenagers.
The Czech crème de la crème forecast – the “Financial Stability
Report“ by CNB (Czech National Bank) – will probably not give any more
wrinkles to the local property development. But it will not remove them either.
The entire economy and property market must prepare for more modest times. The
basic motto of the latest outlook document by CNB is “stabilization“; in all
parametres – at their current, but not always ideal level. The central bank
analysts do not rule out an emergence of worse times, they however, consider
this “unlikely“.
In mid-February Stavebné fórum.sk opened a discussion on shapes, forms and
differences in the post-crisis property development. Representatives of
self-governing bodies, investors, universities, architects and lawyers agreed on
one conclusion then: post-crisis property development will differ vastly and it
will function on principles totally different from today´s. Participants of the
international conference project analysed this topic in more detail and on a
wider international basis last Thursday in May. Again in Košice and again with
focus on Development after
crisis = time for quality: in architecture and in new economic-legal
relations.
They are only catastrophic headlines in the media, in reality, nothing
terrible is happening. The developers‘ problem is only that flats are being
sold over a longer time period. This is how Petr Fanta, managing director and
head of the board of directors of the British-Czech developer company CODECO,
evaluates the frequently discussed crisis of the domestic residential
market.
As we know them, HB Reavis Slovakia are building their Auparks simultaneously
in several cities. Aupark in Piešťany was opened in April, it will be opened
in Žilina in autumn and in Košice next year. They even expanded to the Czech
Republic and Hungary. A shopping and leisure centre with this name will also be
built in Brno, Ostrava and Hradec Králové. The property developer has already
managed to build Aupark, Apollo Business Centre I and II, City Business Centre
I-II in Bratislava. Their investment plan, valued at one and a half billion EUR,
is dominated by Twin City and office complex CBC III-V.
It seems that financial-economic fitness of investors and the courage to new
projects is gradually awakening and growing every day. While one group remains
waiting tactically – they probably want to wait how the demand reacts to the
daredevils´ steps and learn from possible mistakes of others, the second half
have decided to act. Regardless the risk resulting from stepping into the
unknown. So after a year and a half pause heavy machinery has started operation,
to dig the ground and prepare infrastructure and foundations of future projects
in Bratislava and its surroundings.
Some time ago we published an interview
with Jiří Pácal. The real estate expert questioned the statistics on
office properties. Although Prague Research Forum (PRF) was directly mentioned
only once, the criticism concerned this association the most, it is PRF which
generates majority of those statistics. We discussed the work of this
association with Ondřej Novotný from King Sturge and Ondřej Vlk from Jones
Lang LaSalle. (They shared most of the answers, therefore, we have not
identified them by name.)
The Czech Republic has commerical office spaces like other market economies.
Thanks to the youth of our property market and the (small) size of the Czech
Republic, this sector is concentrated in Prague and partly in the Moravian
capital. Consultancy Jones Lang Lasalle recently conducted a survey on the
situation in other Czech regions.
Golf course with 18 holes, training tee, plot with the area of
120 hectares, hotel with 60 beds, restaurant, sports equipment shop, small
conference centre, wellness including swimming pool and also a skiing slope with
a ski lift within the “shooting range“. This is in short the Grund Resort
Golf & Ski. From economic viewpoint, this accounts for an investment of CZK
150 mill. And for the property developer, company Grund with the seat in Mladé
Buky in the Podkrkonoše region (region below Krkonoše mountains), years of
preparations and construction which has not ended.
Colliers International, one of the leading international real estate
companies, drew the attention to the continually overlooked potential of
brownfields in Slovakia in its recent report. When the foreign investors arrive
to our country, their focus is not exclusively on construction of new plants on
greenfields, they also look at former or stagnating production complexes. And it
is these that offer several underestimated advantages: a higher level of
built-up area, infrastructure and a less complicated process of obtaining
planning permissions, which significantly reduce the expenditure necessary for
“clearing the target area“.
According to the database of the information system EIA – compiled by the
analytic department of the development company Ekospol – construction of
almost 15 000 new flats is currently in planning stages in Prague. It appears
that despite the nearly fatal cooling of demand, residential developers still
have big plans for the capital. The question is how many of these will be
eventually realised. That is to say, there are still not many positive signals
coming from the market.